US Small and Midsize Businesses Poised for Growth, Waiting to Make Significant Moves: 2026 Columbia Bank Business Barometer

There is growing confidence among US business leaders that efficiency and productivity gains over the next 12 months will translate to increased profitability and greater opportunities to invest in technology, expansion and hiring between now and the middle of 2027, reports Columbia Bank.
Fuelled by a notable year-over-year improvement in the outlook of smaller enterprises, a record number of both small and middle market businesses say they are prioritising making investments over cutting costs. However, their optimism remains measured. While businesses are confident in their 12-month outlook, 3 in 5 indicate they plan to delay major decisions for at least six months as they monitor current pressures from tariffs, inflation and rising energy costs.

The findings are revealed in the Columbia Bank 2026 Business Barometer, an annual study examining the outlook, priorities and decision-making of nearly 1,200 small and middle market enterprises across the US.

Columbia Bank’s 2026 Business Barometer key takeaways

Advances in AI capabilities are shaping expectations for future growth
The survey and focus groups conducted as part of this year’s study indicate that recent advances in AI capabilities are in part driving the positive 12-month outlook, even as businesses navigate economic uncertainty and cashflow constraints.

Over the next 12 months, most businesses believe AI advances will:

• Increase (significantly/somewhat) productivity (96%)
• Increase employee satisfaction and retention (92%)
• Create the need for more skilled or specialized roles (89%)
• Deliver efficiencies so employees can focus on higher-level tasks and will increase headcount as business grows (63%)
• Strengthen their business overall (59%)
  

AI is now the top investment priority and spiked significantly as a concern for both small and middle market businesses, indicating more enterprises see its fast-emerging capabilities as critical to remain competitive. One in 10 businesses believes AI advances pose a threat to their viability.

12-month outlook: Businesses of all sizes prioritise investments over cost-cutting

This year’s survey indicates strong and almost equal appetite from both small and middle market businesses to invest in strategic priorities that promote efficiency, growth and strengthen their competitive edge. Notwithstanding potential delays on significant investment decisions, the numbers below represent the strongest 12-month investment trajectory since the study began in 2019.

Businesses eye strong performance over the next 12 months:

• 72% anticipate increased demand
• 67% anticipate increased revenue
• 59% anticipate increased profitability

As a result, many are also preparing to invest in their business:

• 89% are likely (very/somewhat) to invest in digitizing new areas
• 70% are likely to borrow to invest in expansion
• 62% are likely to increase real estate footprint
• 51% anticipate increasing the number of employees
• 36% are likely to acquire another business
  

Cybersecurity and fraud threats prove costly, drive investment priorities

More businesses are stepping up efforts to protect their operations as fraud risks evolve and exposures increase with scale. From sophisticated cyberattacks to routine check fraud, businesses are paying the price. In the past 12 months, 7 in 10 have experienced financial loss from fraud, with fake vendor scams and phishing attacks cited as the most common schemes.

• 43% of small businesses report losses between $5,000 and $100,000, including 23% with losses exceeding $10,000
• 22% of middle market companies report losses in excess of $50,000
  

Cybersecurity ranks as a top three investment priority, and businesses of all sizes are planning to invest in related fraud safeguards.

• 44% will upgrade payment or authentication technology
• 42% will work with their bank to implement fraud protection solutions, such as positive pay, payee positive pay and ACH positive pay
• 41% will implement stricter vendor verification processes
  

“While cybersecurity and fraud prevention are investment priorities for businesses, our research indicates that half or fewer have implemented many of the most common fraud prevention tools such as stronger authentication safeguards and eliminating physical checks from their payment processes,” said Kathryn Albright, Head of Global Payments and Deposits at Columbia Bank.

“As companies prepare to invest in growth, it’s imperative they also invest in protecting their operations, strengthening payment systems and enhancing their ability to manage increasingly complex fraud risks.”

The biggest tariff impact: Implementation volatility, not price tag

While negative tariff impacts skew towards middle market companies with larger operations, input from leaders in both segments indicates that the unpredictability of tariff implementation has been more challenging than direct tariff costs. Delays, exemptions and shifting percentage amounts have made planning difficult. To manage actual tariff-related costs, businesses have employed numerous strategies. Small businesses are more likely than the middle market to pass increases on to customers, while middle market companies are more likely to cover costs with loans or lines of credit and to delay investments and hiring decisions.

• 67% of small businesses say tariffs either had no impact (36%) or benefited (31%) them
• 48% of middle market companies say tariffs have been harmful
• 85% of businesses expect tariff volatility to remain a significant factor for at least one year, while 40% say three or more years
• 74% of all businesses that have paid tariffs will seek a refund