Latin America’s third-largest economy could slip into recession if US President Donald Trump’s toxic cocktail of threats to upend the North American Free Trade Agreement or impose heavy tariffs on Mexican exports come true. However, Mexican banks are – at least for now – unconcerned, writes Ivan Castano

Mexico’s payments sector is shrugging off concerns that US President Donald Trump’s protectionist threats could hit its fortunes, forecasting strong revenues despite monitoring portfolios more closely.

“So far, we haven’t taken any provisions,” says Miguel Angel Laurencio de La Vega, investor relations director at Banorte, which with roughly two million customers is Mexico’s third-largest bank.

“Overall, consumption remains strong and there are no [portfolio] deterioration signs, despite future uncertainty.”

Employment continues to grow, with the nation adding 500,000 jobs in the past year, De La Vega says. Unemployment stood at 3.6% in January, down 4.2% year-on-year according to the latest data from statistics institute Inegi.

“If unemployment rises that would give us a reason to act, but so far our past due portfolio remains at 5%, which matches the industry’s, with an improving outlook,” De La Vega adds.

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By GlobalData

Banorte, which intends to double its payments market share to over 16% by 2022, matching arch-rival Citigroup’s Citibanamex, expects card revenues to climb 14% to MXN8.2bn ($435m) this year, helped by soaring interest rates in Mexico.

The central Bank of Mexico has stepped up benchmark rates six times to 5.25% since Trump swept into the White House, in a move aimed at shoring up the plummeting peso and combatting soaring inflation, which is currently hovering at 5% – well over its 2% target.

The increases will add 200 basis points to the 28% average rate that Banorte charges for its silver, platinum and gold products, offsetting a slight decrease in its portfolio growth.

“This year, we will probably grow less in our portfolio but more in revenues,” says De La Vega, adding that last year its outstanding balance grew by 10% to roughly MXN26bn.

Despite rising margins, Mexico’s economy is set to cool this year, with the government recently cutting GDP growth projections to 1.3-1.5%, down from a previous estimate of 2.5%.

The deepening uncertainties are putting investors and businesses on tenterhooks, triggering a sharp fallout in foreign direct investment that is unlikely to recover until the two governments tentatively wrap up negotiations to modify NAFTA by the summer.

Amid such risks, Banorte will focus on growing business with existing clients, and largely shunning new ones or entering new market segments until Mexico’s future prospects become clearer.

“We will be more cautious and seek to grow similarly to last year. We will not be launching any new products or targeting new market segments aggressively,” De La Vega notes.

“Many of our customers use our cards very little, so the plan is to increase this through reward programmes and promotions.”

Others are also being cautious. BBVA Bancomer, which leads Mexico’s banking sector, has begun lowering card limits and more closely monitoring its accounts, analysts say; much smaller Inbursa, which belongs to telecoms tycoon Carlos Slim, is also becoming more selective, they add.

Jorge Benitez, an analyst with broker GBM, has a sanguine outlook for 2017. He says issuers continue to enjoy high margins and improving credit quality, with interest rates hovering at 26.4%. This, coupled with an expected 9% rise in plastic issuance this year, will drive revenues up 11% to MXN94bn.

That said, if the economy were to decline by more than expected in the second half – something economists expect if a trade war erupts – lenders could suffer amid rising unemployment and defaults.

“We could see a small decrease in employment which would affect banks’ portfolios and they would stop issuing credit,” Benitez explains.

To protect themselves, institutions could cut risky personal loans and raise their exposure to safer direct deposit credits, he adds.

However, even if that happens, the payment sector’s long-term prospects look bright, largely as a result of Mexico’s low banking penetration.

“Credit cards represent 33% of the MXN4.3trn banking sector, where penetration is about 4% of GDP,” Benitez says, adding that Chile has an 80% banking rate while Brazil has 80%.

Enrique Mendoza, an analyst at broker Actinver, is more pessimistic, adding that a sharp economic downturn could severely hit issuers. “Banks would have to provision very rapidly, even if there is a small default change from one institution or if credit bureau reports worsen,” Mendoza notes.

Joel Cortes, co-founder of consumer card-comparison site Kardmatch, says issuers would struggle to pass on higher interest rates to customers who would likely fall behind on payments.

Cortes adds that 2017 “will be very boring” for new plastic launches or product innovation, except perhaps in the digital arena where online and mobile purchasing is growing strongly.

He highlights Banregio, a tiny lender in Northern Mexico, as this year’s top innovator after it launched a platinum card offering 1% cashback, 5% interest and no annual fee.

“You hardly see cards with such high rewards and low interest rates,” he notes, adding that the bank has an innovative online application feature.

“Banregio has an interesting philosophy, which is sort of populist because it wants to be seen to be offering a product that won’t break your finances,” Cortes says.

That could chime well with impoverished Mexicans who have boycotted US brands Starbucks, McDonalds and Walmart to decry Trump’s calls that Mexico pay for his border wall, on top of his well-publicised insults against its population.

However, Cortes says the actions have not hurt the likes of Visa, Mastercard or American Express, which has a $2.2bn exposure that analysts believe it is looking to trim. “Each bank has customer complaints or issues, but nothing has changed because of Trump itself,” Cortes adds.

Meanwhile, De La Vega says Banorte is keen to grow its digital business as Mexico’s e-commerce market is growing rapidly amid falling mobile data rates, catching up with leading markets in Brazil and Chile.