The board of Dexia will meet on 8 October as
speculation gathers that its Belgian retail unit is set to be
nationalised.

From a share price of €22 ($29.39) at the end
of 2007, Dexia’s share price tumbled to €4.00 by February 2010 and
by 6 October – when the shares were suspended – the share price had
crashed below €1, valuing the beleaguered Franco-Belgian lender at
around €2bn.

As its shares were suspended, Dexia said that
it kicked off talks to sell its Luxembourg-based unit BIL.

It is inevitable that Dexia will have no
choice but to sell its much prized Turkey-based retail subsidiary,
Denizbank.

According to France-based newspaper Les
Echos
, Sberbank is in pole position to acquire Denizbank, the
7th largest Turkish bank by assets.

Any nationalisation of Dexia’s Belgian unit is
likely to be short-lived. Dexia has invested heavily in its “New
Distribution Model” in Belgium.

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By the end of 2010, 304 of Dexia’s 500 Belgian
branches had been refurbished as part of its Open Branch project.
Customer satisfaction levels increased and in fiscal 2010, retail
deposits increased by 12% year-on-year to €32bn.

Santander, BBVA, HSBC and Rabobank will
inevitably be linked with a possible acquisition of Dexia’s Belgium
retail arm in the event that nationalisation can be avoided or
following a period of state control.